Wife sent me a weather breif that she got. So in short it looks like rain. Just depends on which side of the storm we are on. I'll make the call at 8pm Saturday night.
This morning's weather forecast. Some rain, some wind but not much else.
Sent: Friday, July 23, 2010 7:06 AM
To: Weather Center
Subject: Tropical Storm Bonnie - Friday Morning Update
Coastal Weather Research Center Clients,
New Developments: Bonnie is moving faster toward the west-northwest. The storm is expected to arrive in the Florida Keys/South Florida today and on the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday.
Track Forecast Discussion: Presently Bonnie is located in the western Bahamas a little over 80 miles south southeast of Miami, FL. The storm is well entrenched within deep easterly flow on the south side of a persistent ridge of high pressure and the forward speed of Bonnie has increased to 19 mph. The storm should continue on a west-northwest track at a brisk speed across the Florida Straits/extreme south Florida area today and then to the northern Gulf coast by Saturday night or early Sunday. All interests in these locations need to monitor this system closely.
Intensity Forecast Discussion: Bonnie has now entered a region of stronger southeasterly winds aloft which is keeping the system within a shearing influence on the east side of a large upper-level trough to the west. This shearing influence has kept Bonnie from intensifying overnight and actually pressures in the center of the storm are a little higher than they were yesterday afternoon. Also, data from aircraft reconnaissance earlier this morning indicates that the circulation on the south side of the storm is extremely weak and possibly on the verge of collapse. The adverse shear is expected to continue over the storm through most of its trip across the Gulf. In addition, the cyclonic circulation around the upper-level trough to the west should further inhibit the high-level exhaust mechanism over the storm. Given these conditions, Bonnie may have already seen its best environment. Little if any additional strengthening is expected due to the influence of the upper-level trough. There is a distinct possibility that the deteriorating environment may actually cause some weakening of the system over the northern Gulf prior to the final landfall on the northern Gulf coast. Due to the marginal atmospheric factors surrounding the storm, it is very unlikely this system will ever approach hurricane strength.
Rainfall: Heavy squalls are moving onshore in southeast Florida this morning. Given the faster motion of Bonnie and the rather small size of the storm, rainfall totals will be rather low for a tropical system. Squalls will begin on the north-central Gulf coast on Saturday and spread westward along the coast through Sunday as the system approaches. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are possible in both regions near and to the north of the storm track.
A BLOHW Model forecast will be available around 9:00 am CDT this morning.
Dr. Keith G. Blackwell and Andrew Murray Coastal Weather Research Center University of South Alabama